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Go long/short

 

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Evaluation of whether to go  “long”/”short”  on tonnage

A recurrent task in any shipping operator is to determine whether to go “long” or “short” on tonnage or cargo.

If it is expected that market freight rates will rise, an operator may decide to charter in extra tonnage in order to be able to take advantage of rising freight rates and locked in tc rates.

Route99 will calculate optimal schedules under such scenarios and can therefore be valuable in calculating upside and downside earnings. Route99 is not forecasting markets, but will use rates specified by the user. The user has to decide what scenarios he will want to consider. E.g.  a panamax bulk operator, may want to define three market scenarios for the bulk market reflected by freight rates for grain USG/Cont:

Illustrative example (Panamax bulk operator)

Scenario assumptions specified by the user

Results from Route99 analysis

Scenario

Rate for Grain USG/Cont (55,000 mt)

TC Result for the whole fleet

 

Hedging decision

Pessimistic

10 USD/t

50 Mill USD

No additional vessels fixed in on tc

Realistic

15 USD/t

60 Mill USD

Take additional two vessels on tc for 12/18 months

Optimistic

20 USD/t

80 Mill USD

Take additional four vessels on tc for 18/24 months

 

By changing freight rates Route99 will calculate different schedules and net tc result. In this case an operator can quickly determine his exposure to market fluctuations and take steps to cover his exposure.